King Vs York, A Tale Of Two Wagers

Scott York announces campaign
In the battle of wagers, Scott York comes out looking prescient regarding the Republican electorate.

No one knows what’s going to happen in the Loudoun County elections on Tuesday, as is always the case, because there is almost never any polling conducted. In the race for chair of the Board of Supervisors, predictions are particularly hard because four people are running, two of whom are Independents and likely to cut into whatever party loyalty might exist in 2015.

Both Republican Charlie King and Independent Scott York took the leap of faith every would-be candidate must make prior to tossing their hats in the ring, but they’ve each taken a further risk in their respective approaches during the campaign.

York’s wager was an obvious one, in retrospect, but still a gamble at the time: With overwhelming name recognition throughout Loudoun County, and a reputation for being on the preservationist side of the question of development in the West, he decided to make a strong play for Republican votes by immediately endorsing a number of Republican candidates.

York had most recently won office after joining the Republican ticket in 2011, riding the wave of a Republican sweep of county offices. As an Independent in 2015, he sought a different wave: of dissatisfaction among the Republican rank-and-file, and willingness to reject party authority.

In case you hadn’t seen the news lately, this turns out to be a most excellent year in terms of Republican willingness to reject party authority. If there were ever a year for banking on voters to defy the local Republican Party and their “pledge,” 2015 is that year. Kudos must go to Scott York for reading the tea leaves correctly, and discerning from the temperament of the electorate following the Loudoun County Republican Committee (LCRC) convention that there might have been dissension in the ranks afterwards. One of York’s endorsements was of Republican Sheriff Mike Chapman, who prevailed in a primary contest at the convention.

steve-simpson_charlie-king
Steve Simpson (L) and Charlie King had what appeared to be a joint PR effort to reduce the authority of Mike Chapman’s Sheriff’s Office.

Which brings us to Charlie King’s wager. King faced a tough situation already, before York even joined the race, because a vocal part of King’s support came from a faction of the LCRC which worked to defeat Sheriff Chapman before the convention, and afterward lauded in social media and elsewhere the fact that Steve Simpson was jumping from the Republican fold to run as an Independent against Chapman. The, uh, “pledge” be damned.

If anyone had a stake in the generic concept of Republican loyalty and keeping the pledge, it was Charlie King. But right off the bat, an influential part of the LCRC said, in effect, “we don’t need no stinking pledge, voting for Independent candidates is ok,” their celebratory fist bumps became roundhouses to King’s face, and into that Perot-sized opening stepped Scott York.

How would King respond? Well, interestingly. In a campaign that has been absent prominent discussion of major issues, and in which the King campaign has garnered very few headlines in the local news for taking a stance on policy matters, King apparently decided last month to take a virtual jab at Sheriff Chapman by calling for creation of a county police department. That actually may be the only issue-oriented headline King has gotten this year. Scott York weighed in to correct King’s assertion that the idea had not been sufficiently explored, and to educate King about the fact that the bigger decision would be changing Loudoun County’s form of government (an odd oversight on King’s part).

Steve Simpson, for his part, quickly joined in with what appeared a lot like a tag-team effort against Chapman.

In terms of public perception, the notion that Charlie King was part of the “Steve Simpson wing of the LCRC” was not repudiated, to say the least: King seems to be wagering he can pull maximum votes from the anti-Chapman Republicans, tick off the other half of the local Republican electorate, and still pull out a win in the general election.

King is a smart man and he does seem to understand politics, but one can be forgiven for questioning his math.

Sterling Supervisor Eugene Delgaudio and Commonwealth’s Attorney Jim Plowman both campaigned actively against Mike Chapman back in April, before the convention, but since then have said nary a word about the race for sheriff and certainly nothing publicly to disparage Chapman. Both men might have believed they had some political capital to burn in opposing a popular Republican sheriff.

We can’t know how Republican or Independent voters have been influenced by these political maneuvers, if at all. We can’t even say if it will matter in the end: The big winner from the battle between King and York for Republican votes could be the Democratic candidate, Phyllis Randall. If she holds onto the majority of Democratic votes, and makes some inroads with Independents, and York and King split their voters somewhat evenly, Randall could emerge with a plurality.

Two factors point to King ending up on the losing side of his wager (which, for the record, I don’t want to see happen – Charlie King would make a great chair of the Loudoun Board).

First, York absolutely crushed the competition in fundraising. York lapped the field by raising more than his three opponents’ combined totals so far. But more importantly, York seems to have taken a huge share of potential Republican dollars. Charlie King raised less than $50,000, on top of $28,000 in loans to himself. Scott York raised quadruple that amount even as a very late entrant to the campaign. In fact, nine of the district supervisor candidates raised more money than King.

republican-charlie-king
The message of King’s campaign in the final week is that he is the “Republican” candidate.

Second, King’s promotional campaign, which seems to have begun last week (at least at this Sterling household), appears to acknowledge that he’s Republican-challenged. The message of his mail pieces is that Charlie King is THE Republican in the race, in case you didn’t know.

A robo-call from Ken Cuccinelli this morning had the same message, and “Republican Charlie King” seems, along the lines of “Pistol Pete Maravich” or “Broadway Danny Rose,” like the drumbeat phrase we are supposed to internalize in the final week of the campaign.

Which is all fine and good, and probably necessary, especially when one of the King campaign’s most resonant public statements of the past two months was for a position opposed by our Republican sheriff, and supported by the Independent and Democratic candidates for sheriff. In a year when voters seem more than willing to thumb their noses at the party anyway, King has to hope he is the one to inspire loyalty among Loudoun County Republicans.

About FirewallNOVA Right

They can kill you, but they can't eat you.

Loudoun Republicans Tout Unity, Growth, Optimism, “New Vision”

Michael Haynes, chairman of the Loudoun County Republican Committee (LCRC), observed that “after days of rain and gloomy weather, the sun came out to welcome our candidates,” an appropriate backdrop for Friday’s GOP “Unity” event in Leesburg. Joined by Republican Party of Virginia Chairman John Whitbeck, it served as an unofficial kickoff for the 2015 campaign, a chance to clarify positions on Independent candidates, and an opportunity to smooth over differences from the recent LCRC convention.

This is the second half of our coverage of Friday’s event. As noted in yesterday’s post, Sheriff Mike Chapman carried the GOP’s main message of unity (contrasting with the chaos on the Loudoun Democrats’ ticket).

Loudoun Republican Charlie King
KING: “Integrity is the most important quality of a leader.”

Opening speaker and candidate for chair of the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors, Charlie King, said, “It’s time for new leadership and a new vision for Loudoun County.” [The Bull Elephant has the full text of King’s remarks.]

King took two Independent candidates to task: Scott York (Board chair), who left the Republican Party, and Steve Simpson (sheriff candidate), who pledged to support the 2015 ticket, and then broke the pledge for a second time since 2007.

Regarding Simpson, King said that for police, “reputation is everything”:

Based on an officer’s word, people will be convicted of crimes and sent to jail. How can Steve Simpson possibly lead the Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office when he cannot honor simple promises to play by the rules?

But King focused most of his condemnation on York, his opponent for Board chair. He characterized York’s change of heart about seeking another term as “waffling”:

Loudoun County needs a decisive leader. If Mr. York takes months to make a decision while reversing himself over and over, how can the voters believe he is capable of making the many tough calls the next Board will have to make?

Loudoun Republican Ron Meyer
MEYER: “With Metro coming … we have a lot of opportunities to bring in commercial growth.”

The GOP nominee for Broad Run supervisor, Ron Meyer, highlighted nuts-and-bolts issues showing the Republican ticket unified on “conservative values to make people’s lives better …. Better commute, better schools, better cost of living, a better place to be.” Meyer noted the economic potential of Metro locations coming to Loudoun, and said commercial development will allow the county to continue increasing school funding and road improvements.

Meyer said the best way to seek lower fees on the Greenway is by expanding alternatives to the Greenway: “Take it to their pocket book so we can bring them to the table.”

Continue reading “Loudoun Republicans Tout Unity, Growth, Optimism, “New Vision””

About FirewallNOVA Right

They can kill you, but they can't eat you.

Republicans Show United Front While Democrats Reel From Self-Inflicted Wounds

In one of the stranger political counterpoints in recent memory, Loudoun County’s Democratic and Republican constitutional officer candidates each made their own respective news yesterday. The Republicans came out ahead.

While the LCRC was all about unity and party, the LCDC (“LC” possibly now meaning “Litigation Central”) was more evocative of hoisting, and petards.

LCRC Mike Chapman
WE’RE ONE TEAM: Sheriff Mike Chapman at Republican unity event, with GOP candidates, including Commonwealth’s Attorney Jim Plowman (back row, second from left), who opposed Chapman’s nomination earlier this year.
On a sunny Friday afternoon on the historic Leesburg courthouse steps, Loudoun County Republican candidates and elected officials stood in a show of unity, delivering statements and holding a brief press conference.

Notably, Sheriff Mike Chapman and Commonwealth’s Attorney Jim Plowman shared the same stage. Just over a month ago, at the LCRC convention, Plowman opposed Chapman’s nomination to another term. Plowman had actively supported Chapman’s primary opponent, Eric Noble. (Plowman was unopposed for nomination).

Chapman, appearing relaxed and upbeat, said the convention had provided Republicans “an opportunity to air our differences,” and

Now is the time when we all pull together… We share the same values of fiscal responsibility, law and order, the ability to treat each other with dignity and respect. This is about pooling all of our resources together, working as a team, going forward as a team, and making sure that the voters out there understand what we’re all about.

Asked whether his campaign would highlight any of the ethics questions involving his current opponent and former sheriff Stephen O. Simpson, raised in the media during the 2011 campaign, Chapman said he ran a positive campaign then, and would take the same approach in 2015, emphasizing the accomplishments of the past four years.

[Also speaking at the GOP unity event were candidate for Board chair, Charlie King, and several other Republican nominees, who together provided a good preview of themes for the upcoming campaign. Click here for the second part of our coverage at FirewallNOVA.]

The cheery end to the week did not extend to the Democratic side of town, and here is where the irony comes in: Just prior to the GOP unity event, the Loudoun Times-Mirror published a story about the Loudoun Democrats’ rejection of their candidate for sheriff – to be a member of their own political committee. (Also noted here at FWN.) When the vote came, according to the report, it appears the sheriff candidate did not receive a single vote from the membership.

But that may not have been the biggest news in the piece by reporter Crystal Owens. Brian Allman, the sheriff nominee, who is now engaged in a multi-million dollar lawsuit against at least one LCDC member, apparently was originally supported for nomination by the Democrats’ candidate for commonwealth’s attorney, Bob Ohneiser. (In order to be voted on, Allman’s nomination for membership had to be seconded at the previous month’s meeting, and that second was provided by Ohneiser.)

brian-allman-bob-ohneiser
STILL ON THE SAME PAGE? Democratic sheriff candidate Brian Allman (L) was supported by the Democrats’ nominee for commonwealth’s attorney, Bob Ohneiser.
Whether Ohneiser brought Allman to the LCDC for consideration originally, Owens’ story does not say, but Ohneiser’s support for Allman might clear up one mystery: How did Allman get the sheriff nomination in the first place, when he was not even a member of the committee? Vouching by a prominent local Democrat like Ohneiser could have made a newcomer’s path to nomination smoother.

So while the Republican commonwealth’s attorney candidate was working very publicly against the eventual Republican sheriff nominee, the Democratic CA candidate was supporting the Democrats’ sheriff nominee. And while the first two have made up well enough now, in June, to present at least a nominal united front, the latter two may still be united, but the only “front” they present is more like the lead cars in a train wreck.

It would not be surprising if, during the upcoming campaign, Republican candidates posed the question to their Democratic opponents: Have you gotten your house in order yet, and what have you learned, to assure voters you would not bring the management chaos of the Democratic Committee to Loudoun County as a whole?

The LTM story also does not say whether LCDC Chair Val Suzdak has changed her position on the Brian Allman nomination. In a March press release, Suzdak praised the LCDC ticket – including Brian Allman – as “the strongest, most dedicated, and most virtuous group of candidates I’ve seen since I’ve lived here in Loudoun County.” However, at this time, Allman is no longer listed on the LCDC Web page as a 2015 candidate. Suzdak has not responded to a FirewallNOVA request for comment.

The Democratic Party, as a rule, champions the right to redress a wrong through legal means, which is seen as a key protection accorded everyone in modern civil society. Without the right to sue for damages, the average citizen has no legal recourse.

We will need to wait and see if the Loudoun Democrats can move on from this episode of misunderstanding, and join together in support of their own average citizen, a sheriff candidate who thus far appears to have done no more than exercise his Democratic-supported right to redress. Maybe they will even have the discussion about his qualifications which they should have had months ago, and then reconsider his membership (although one supposes he would need to drop the lawsuit first). If Brian Allman becomes a committee member, the LCDC will save face and Allman will likely have an easier time conducting a viable campaign.

About FirewallNOVA Right

They can kill you, but they can't eat you.

Simpson Proves That In Loudoun, A Republican Pledge Is Like A Shillelagh

Steve Simpson Loudoun Sheriff Candidate
Spurned again: Loudoun County Republicans watch helplessly as Steve Simpson turns away from pledge of loyalty.

Is former Loudoun County sheriff Steve Simpson the only candidate dealing honestly with the Loudoun County Republican Committee (LCRC) pledge?

Long-expected and now about to become reality, Simpson is almost certainly running again as an Independent for sheriff, weeks after pledging to support the Republican nominee for that office.

Like the Irish walking stick that helps you get from point A to point B, serves a head smack to someone in the way, and holds seemingly magical powers, the pledge provides access to the LCRC institution, is invoked to threaten and sanction opponents, while projecting the committee’s faux-authority to intimidate neophytes and rubes.

Can you get from point A to B without a shillelagh? Of course you can, and when needed you can toss it aside – or simply wink at it and it will disappear. Because it is magical, and essentially fake. Just like the LCRC pledge.

Not that there’s anything wrong with that! I am here today not to bury Steve Simpson but to praise him, because in a political arena of mushmouthed lies, Simpson is unapologetically realistic.

All that matters is the office and who holds it. As you get further up the government hierarchy the two-party system dominates, but at the end of the day the parties are merely devices for getting to an actual place of power.

Oh, you might not know that from listening to the parties. They have principles and platforms and pledges and creeds. That’s all a load of hooey aimed at capturing market segments, as “principled” as the red of a soda can or the blue of a corporate logo.

The LCRC pledge takes on poignance in Simpson’s case for a few reasons. He supported Eric Noble prior to the LCRC convention, and Noble used the pledge as a club to hit his GOP primary opponent, Mike Chapman, repeatedly. Noble and his supporters online goaded Chapman about keeping the pledge, presumably under the expectation Noble would prevail at the convention and Chapman would be tempted to run as an Independent. Shortly after Noble lost, those supporters seemed rather positive about the possibility of Simpson breaking the pledges he took (in order to join the LCRC and then vote at the convention) and run for the office himself.

Disclosure: When I argue the LCRC pledge is a sham, I should point out, I do so as someone who has a 100 percent perfect record keeping the LCRC pledge. I have never failed to vote for an LCRC nominee on any ballot since I moved here in 2004, despite not being an LCRC member most of that time, and my loyalty includes 2007 when I supported the LCRC nominee for sheriff, Greg Ahlemann. That last item – if my calculations are correct – places me higher atop the pinnacle of LCRC perfection than the majority of Republicans who were on the committee in 2007.

Does that make me some kind of great Republican? No, in fact what it makes me is a rube. But let’s take a quick look the texts comprising the so-called pledge.

Here are the relevant sections of the official LCRC documents:

Continue reading “Simpson Proves That In Loudoun, A Republican Pledge Is Like A Shillelagh”

About FirewallNOVA Right

They can kill you, but they can't eat you.

It’s All Fun And Games Until They Come After Your Candidate For Chairman

Mike Chapman and Charlie King
LCRC leadership needed to wait two full weeks to defend Sheriff Mike Chapman (L), and presumably will now wait until June 8 to defend Charlie King.

The political business of the day in Loudoun County is called moral equivalence. And business is good.

The local Republican leadership waited a full two weeks to defend Sheriff Mike Chapman against a rebellion contravening party rules, presumably out of prudence and a need to gather all the facts. It is safe to assume, then, that those same leaders will wait another two weeks – until, say, June 8 – to defend Charlie King.

Let’s not do anything rash, please.

Loudoun County Republican Committee (LCRC) Chair Mike Haynes just issued a stern press release which is reprinted below the fold. In it, Haynes calls on former sheriff, former Republican, former Independent, newly-Republican and once again threatening-to-go Independent Steve Simpson, to please stick to the GOP “pledge” that Simpson just signed in order to vote at the LCRC Convention earlier this month.

To recap: Soon after the LCRC Convention results quashed the attempt of a GOP faction to take down Republican Sheriff Mike Chapman, Steve Simpson announced he was considering a run for sheriff as an Independent, despite having just rejoined the LCRC and supported Chapman’s challenger.

It became evident, and not very secret, that some in the anti-Chapman contingent of Republicans might be quietly celebrating Simpson’s entry. Voters need to have a choice, don’t ya know.

Response from the LCRC leadership about this open threat to reneg on the “pledge”? Not a peep.

Presumably Chapman was on his own.

Then yesterday, when Shawn Williams made noises about going back on HIS pledge, and joining the race for chairman, and dealing a very real threat to the head of the Republican ticket, Charlie King…. apparently alarms went off.

As they say in the vernacular: S–t just got real.

And the wink-wink at Steve Simpson became a little too hypocritical for comfort, apparently.

So before Haynes could fire off a press release chastising Shawn Williams – a press release that would pass the laugh test – someone must have whispered in his ear that he’d better, first, address that Steve Simpson fellow who was doing THE EXACT SAME THING two weeks ago.

Unfortunately you cannot back date a press release, but better late than never.

Mike Chapman finally got his party leadership’s support, and in a couple of weeks Haynes can issue a new press release, condemning Shawn Williams, that will not be met with a chorus of guffaws.

Here is the text of today’s LCRC press release.

Continue reading “It’s All Fun And Games Until They Come After Your Candidate For Chairman”

About FirewallNOVA Right

They can kill you, but they can't eat you.

Steve Simpson’s LCRC Experience Once Again Ends In Heartache

Steve Simpson
Former Loudoun County Sheriff Steve Simpson reportedly re-joined the LCRC a few months ago.

Although he recently rejoined the Loudoun County Republican Committee (LCRC), former Sheriff Steve Simpson says he is considering running for his old office – and because the LCRC nominee is current Sheriff Mike Chapman, Simpson will need to run either as a Democrat or Independent.

Until 2007, Simpson was the Republican sheriff of Loudoun County. He lost the GOP nomination that year, and successfully ran for office again as an Independent.

Simpson attended the April Republican candidates’ debate as a supporter of Eric Noble, and also participated in last week’s LCRC convention. In order to vote at the convention, Simpson had to sign a pledge to support the Republican ticket in the fall.

The LCRC pledge, however, is regarded as dubious by many observers, and Simpson’s recent statement certainly confirms it.

As reported today at The Bull Elephant, Simpson says he is being encouraged by members of both parties. Simpson says “many” LCRC convention participants were unhappy that Eric Noble lost the contest to Mike Chapman, and “have contacted me asking me to run.”

Someone uninformed about the inherent holiness of the Republican Party might think this is about nothing more than a raw quest for power. But the LCRC has had a love-hate relationship with the Independent side of the fence and there would be ample precedent for LCRC members to encourage such a candidate.

In 2007, a large segment of the committee turned their back on the Republican nominee for sheriff, Greg Ahlemann, in order to support Simpson’s Independent campaign. Simpson had been defeated by Ahlemann for the GOP nomination at the June, 2007 LCRC convention, and the next morning reneged on the Republican “pledge” and announced he would run as an Independent.

Because of Simpson’s history as an Independent, it seems likely that is the route he would take.

About FirewallNOVA Right

They can kill you, but they can't eat you.