Nov. 4 Evening Update: Foust In Flames! Warner To Recount?

John Foust
John Foust

A quick mid-evening update:

Dirty John Foust has been sent packing, humiliated, losing not only by double digits but likely by over 15 percent, to our new 10th District Congresswoman, Barbara Comstock. With 84% of precincts reporting, Comstock leads 57% to 39%.

Foust – the footnote in future discussion of the death of the war on women meme – should be brought forth as a cautionary tale forever hence. Let his name never be spoken again except in casting shame and derision.

Mark Warner is losing to Ed Gillespie with 95.5% of precincts reporting, 985,447 to 985,023. Two early conclusions:

  • This likely will go to a recount; and
  • The national GOP needs to get out of the habit of pre-emptively giving up on Republicans in Virginia. See Cuccinelli, Ken. If Virginia is purple, Republicans have willed it so.

In other news, Republicans need to win one more Senate seat to control the Senate for the next two years, they are going to have the largest House majority in 65 years, and have won the governorships of Texas and most likely Florida.

Democrats’ Sterling Rally For Foust, Warner CANCELLED

Warner, Foust event canceled
Last-minute chaos as Virginia Democrats are forced to cancel campaign event for Warner and Foust.

A Democratic Party of Virginia (DPVA) rally which had been scheduled tomorrow evening in Sterling, featuring candidates Mark Warner and John Foust, has just been cancelled, as reported at Bearing Drift.

The DPVA had advertised the event as “Outer NOVA GOTV Rally with Senator Mark Warner, Senator Tim Kaine and John Foust” and scheduled it to take place Monday, November 3, from 7:30 pm – 9:00 pm at the Sterling Community Center.

The Democrat Foust is behind in the polls by double digits in his race with Republican Barbara Comstock for the 10th Congressional District seat.

Click here for the full story ….

Finally, Foust Benefactor Pulls The Plug

This can only be good news for people who own televisions, and good news for those of us who want to forget we ever heard of John Foust.

It is pretty wonderful news for Barbara Comstock, too. (Also reported earlier today at Bearing Drift)

Foust benefactor pulls plug
Foust campaign on less generous rations for remainder of campaign season

National Democrats have canceled a multimillion-dollar television ad buy in Northern Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, a blow to Democrat John W. Foust in his race against Republican Barbara J. Comstock for a seat that had been seen as very competitive for much of the year.

Foust has been polluting the airwaves and FIOS lines with his rehash of the “war on women” canard. It was a lame and dirty campaign, going back to that well one more time, in effect making his own deal with the devil. Now there will be $2.8 million less of his garbage. Good.

Real Clear Politics?

The popular Web site, Real Clear Politics, is not living up to its name. For months, it has listed the Foust/Comstock race for Virginia’s 10th CD as “Leans GOP.” Today, with two new polls out, they’ve moved “VA10” from their “Leans GOP” list to their “Toss Up” list:

map

Only, it’s not that… well, clear. If you click on that district map (the one color-coded as “Toss up”), you get this overview of the race:

Ranking

That’s the same as it’s been for a long time, giving the race a “Leans GOP” ranking.

Hard to believe the two new polls gave RCP a reason to move the race one column to the left, as: a) both polls are partisan bull, and b) both polls put Comstock in the lead. Maybe it’s a Web-based typo of some kind, and RCP will move VA10 back to the right, but how does a typo like that happen? Could as well be that the map does reflect RCP’s new view, but that the page excerpted above, with the ranking, hasn’t been updated yet.

We’ll keep an eye on it for you.

Let’s Get “Real”

John Foust used a word that Virginia politicians should probably just elide from their vocabularies, when he said Barbara Comstock has never had a “real” job. Taken in full context, anyone can see Foust meant Comstock’s working energies have been devoted to what’s best for the Republican party (“partisan operative,” was how he put it). But, Comstock is a woman and, with Republicans doing all a party can do to ruin women’s lives, her campaign has decided that John was taking a shot at housewives stay-at-home moms. Or maybe it was a shot at federal employees. Or, even more sympathetic, maybe they want him to look like he was mocking lawyers. As Comstock has been all three, they want to be sure no one can be left in any doubt just whom it was that John was mocking, so they’re going to be vague about it and let you decide for yourself (while, of course, reminding you that Barbara Comstock Is A Woman!, which should have us all wondering what virtues Sen. Dick “there is no such thing as marital rape” Black and Del. Bob “birth defects are punishment from God” Marshall have to offer the voters).

Anyway, John probably could have chosen his words better. Those occupations Barbara’s had are all “real” jobs. It’s just that, as a committed operative of the Republican party, Barbara’s never really done them.

Bolger Drops Out of 10th CD Race

The Dranesville District Democrats are reporting on their Facebook page that Richard Bolger has dropped out of the running for the Democratic nomination in the 10th Congressional District race. This leaves John Foust unopposed and, with filing closed, the Democratic nominee. Here’s an excerpt from Bolger’s statement today:

At this point, it has become clear to me that John Foust is our strongest choice with the best chance of helping our party win this seat and change the direction of Congress. That is why I have reached out to John and told him I am suspending my campaign and will be supporting his candidacy.

Continue reading “Bolger Drops Out of 10th CD Race”

DCCC Picks John Foust

Fairfax county supervisor John FoustAlthough he doesn’t even have the nomination yet, candidate John Foust has been named, personally, as a “Red to Blue” candidate to win Virginia’s 10th Congressional District in November by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (“DCCC,” or “dee-trip,” as it is known). This is a big deal because DCCC also sometimes names individual districts as Red-to-Blue districts, without backing any candidate in particular. For Foust to gain this support before the caucuses (to be held later this month) that choose the delegates to the Democrats’ nominating convention (yes, it is confusing) means they already have a preference, and it’s Foust.

The other contender, Richard Bolger, is clearly a smart, decent fellow who has every right to seek the nomination for himself. But he also has the right to pick another time to enter politics. His party has a lot of ground to make up in the House of Representatives. DCCC is obviously trying to send him a signal, and it is one he should receive. The smart, decent thing for Mr. Bolger to do now is step aside, endorse John Foust, and be a team player for his party. That would only help him in a future quest for nomination, whereas digging in and forcing a convention would only make him look stubborn and self-serving.

Local Dems should make Bolger’s choices clear to him, and let him know they remember their friends.

And Then There Were Two…

Sam Kubba has dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination to succeed Frank Wolf. That leaves Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust and Fairfax attorney Richard Bolger still contending. The smart money’s on Foust, but the Democratic 10th Congressional District Committee has chosen a byzantine nominating process (involving a two-week election period during which you get to vote for some number of Delegates, some other number of Alternates, which you can do by slate or on an individual basis, who then go on to a convention during which the committed Delegates are bound to vote for their candidate on the first round only, unless that candidate has dropped out, and then, well… you can read all five single-spaced pages of rules for this process on your own time).

Seems like a lot of trouble to go to, but there are only just so many ways to choose a nominee and you do want the process to be fair. On the other hand, if you are a political party, you also want the process to choose the candidate most likely to win in the general election. However, parties and candidates are not one-in-the-same. Parties want their candidates to win, but candidates want themselves to win. Messrs. Kubba and Bolger were, as far as anyone seems to know, politically unknown before announcing they would run for Frank Wolf’s seat. Now, at the time, Wolf was widely expected to run again, and the practice of running political unknowns for seats you can’t win is fairly well established, so no one really cared who they were. Supervisor Foust’s entry into the race, combined with Wolf’s retirement, changes all that, because of one simple fact: Foust could win in November. So why is Bolger running? Could he win? Theoretically, anyone can win. But, realistically, his chances seem very slight compared to Foust’s. Then again, both men are from Fairfax, while the single most populous jurisdiction in the district is Loudoun county. This could be an issue if the Republicans choose a candidate with any Loudoun ties name-recognition. At the moment, it’s hard to say who that Republican will be, as the list of contenders is pretty long:

  • Barbara Comstock
  • Bob Marshall
  • Richard Shickle
  • Stephen Hollingshead
  • Marc Savitt
  • Rob Wasinger
  • Brent Anderson
  • Donald Duck

Okay, one of those hasn’t yet declared, but the top two are the most likely to include the actual nominee, and both have established support in Loudoun county. Both will appeal to voters outside of Loudoun and not in Fairfax. Either Foust or Bolger (and it is going to be Foust) will take Fairfax (readily, if Marshall wins, but with a bit of a fight if Comstock wins). The hinterlands of the district will go to the Republican. Which brings the battle home to Loudoun, where almost all of the interesting political battles in Virginia seem to be happening these days.

Both parties will choose their nominees on April 26. On April 27, if you live in Loudoun county, draw the shades and lock your doors, because it’s going to be heck outside.